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Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Predictions
On Saturday, May 3 2025, the UFC plants its flag in Iowa for the first time in a quarter‑century, headlining with a bantamweight crossroads bout that could reshape the 135‑pound title picture. Five‑round main‑events are nothing new to Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen, but they remain largely uncharted territory for former flyweight ruler Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo, who is still proving his power translates at a higher weight. With Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili set to run it back for gold later this summer, the winner in Des Moines may well punch a ticket to a title eliminator—or even slide straight into backup status should injury strike. MMAmania.com
Fighter Snapshots
Cory Sandhagen enters at 17‑5, thirty‑three years old, rangy at 5‑foot‑11 with a seventy‑inch reach and a switch‑stance rhythm that floods stat sheets—he averages just over 5.0 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.5. UFC stats Ranked fifth, he is nine months removed from a scope on his left elbow that required a brief layoff but, according to his team at Elevation Fight Team, “restored full pop” to his signature step‑in elbows.
Deiveson Figueiredo brings a 24‑4‑1 ledger and the aura of a two‑time flyweight champ. At thirty‑seven and five‑foot‑five, he willingly concedes six inches of height yet only two inches of reach to Sandhagen. UFC Stats list him at 3.8 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.4 absorbed, and a robust 1.6 takedowns every fifteen minutes with 34 percent accuracy. UFC stats Two bantamweight wins—including a guillotine over Cody Garbrandt—buoy his ranking to No. 6.
Stylistically, Sandhagen is a creative volume machine whose hopping knees and spinning elbows draw oohs even in empty arenas; Figueiredo remains a blitzing power hitter with a venomous front‑headlock series.
Form & the X‑Factor Storyline
Sandhagen’s most recent outing was a grind of a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, a fight in which he fought one‑armed for stretches after aggravating a bone spur in that elbow. A minor procedure followed, and sparring partners report that the Colorado native is once again drilling five‑minute shark‑tank rounds without compression sleeves. He admits being “irked” at watching O’Malley receive an immediate rematch yet views Saturday as the perfect audition to steal the spotlight.
Figueiredo’s bantamweight sample size has been dramatic: a second‑round submission of Garbrandt, a technical chess match decision over Marlon Vera, and a wide decision loss to Petr Yan in November that exposed fatigue over the championship rounds. With age and physiology working against him, he uprooted camp to Scottsdale for six weeks to run desert miles, enlisted wrestling coach Johnny Case to tighten transitions, and hired a sports scientist to track lactic‑acid thresholds. The word from camp is “discipline”—no more crash diets, no more pace mismanagement.
Outside the cage, trash‑talk is minimal. Sandhagen jokes that the Brazilian’s power reminds him of “a mini Francis,” while Figueiredo calls Sandhagen “tricky but not invincible.” Respectful tension sells just fine when stakes are this high.
Sandhagen vs Figueiredo predictions analysis
Lean versus compact. Sandhagen’s reach is two inches longer, but more telling is the seven‑inch height differential that lets him jab and front‑kick at will. Both men strike efficiently—Sandhagen lands 44 percent of attempts, Figueiredo 49 percent. Grappling numbers favor the Brazilian early (1.6 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 50 percent accuracy), yet his 60 percent defensive rate suggests opponents stand up often. Sandhagen’s 63 percent takedown defense is solid enough, and he historically scrambles to his feet within fifteen seconds of being grounded.
Perhaps the clearest gap is output: Sandhagen throws almost seventy significant attempts per round; Figueiredo hovers around forty‑five. If the pace creeps north of fifty, Deiveson’s gas tank must stand a test it has failed twice—most recently against Yan, when he landed only twenty‑nine strikes between rounds four and five.
Sandhagen vs Figueiredo: Technical Breakdown
Striking
Sandhagen’s textbook starts southpaw, fires a jab‑left‑kick series, then pirouettes orthodox to land a right cross as opponents reset. Former teammate TJ Dillashaw told MMA Mania this week that “Cory’s best weapon is the rhythm change you don’t see coming—he paws, he steps, he stabs the body, and suddenly the head kick is there.” Figueiredo’s pocket work is simpler but lethal: an overhand‑right dart, followed by a digging left to the liver, rinse‑repeat until something cracks. He forces exchanges by blitzing behind a high guard, trusting his chin long enough to plant a bomb.
Defensively, Sandhagen has a habit of retreating in straight lines; Figueiredo reads that and often jumps into hooks that graze temple and ear. Yet the taller man’s built‑in lean‑backs neutralize that surge once he frames. Expect Figueiredo to invest in calf‑kicks early—he landed twelve on Vera inside seven minutes and slowed a historically elusive striker to a crawl.
Grappling & Clinch
Though known for muay Thai flair, Sandhagen quietly averages just under one takedown per fight and chains double‑legs to mat returns. In the clinch he frames tall and scores with short knees; elbows flow on the break. Figueiredo’s wrestling is more blast‑double and head‑outside single, preferring to sit in half‑guard and fish for front‑headlock grips. His guillotine is a career signature—Cody Garbrandt tapped at UFC 300 after leaving his head in a scramble.
On bottom Sandhagen rarely concedes position; a Granby roll sets him free 70 percent of the time. Figueiredo’s top control looked sticky at flyweight, but bantamweights like Yan powered to half‑butterfly and swept. If Deiveson can’t flatten Sandhagen in the opening two rounds, his odds of grounding him later diminish fast.
Cardio & Fight IQ
Sandhagen enters his fifth straight five‑round booking. He out‑paced Rob Font with 155 strikes in the final three rounds, then out‑hustled Marlon Vera with similar volume. His corner, led by Christian Allen, excels at mid‑fight adjustments—watch for faint level changes morphing into uppercuts once Figueiredo dips.
Figueiredo navigated twenty‑five minutes exactly twice in his career—both against Brandon Moreno at flyweight. The first ended in a draw after a late low‑blow point deduction; the second he lost majority decision. Coaches blame inefficient bursts and adrenaline dumps. Data backs it: his significant strikes drop by forty‑five percent after Round 2, takedown attempts plummet almost entirely. Saturday will reveal whether a revamped conditioning lab solved that riddle.
Betting Odds & Implied Probabilities
Consensus books list Sandhagen at –550 (84.6 percent implied) with Figueiredo at +400 (20 percent). CBSSports.com The fight is –185 to go the distance, indicating oddsmakers lean decision. Lines opened –450/+350 and widened once weigh‑ins saw both men nail 135 pounds on the first attempt. MMA Fighting Money flowed toward the switch‑stance technician after analysts highlighted the height‑reach‑cardio trifecta, yet the over 3.5 rounds prop held near –135 (57 percent). Sharps evidently trust Figueiredo’s chin and Sandhagen’s measured finishing.
Keys to Victory
Sandhagen
• Keep the fight at kicking range for eight of the first ten minutes.
• Target the body: dig front‑kicks and long jabs to sap bursts.
• Time step‑in knees during level‑changes; sprawl and circle away.
• Shift tempo upward after Round 3 to drown any comeback hopes.
Figueiredo
• Attack the lead calf—every bite at mobility sets up the overhand.
• Double‑jab inside and exit with a body hook to draw high guard.
• Shoot blast‑double when Sandhagen spins; threaten the guillotine if stuffed.
• Pace with purpose—thirty strikes per round beats forty‑five in spurts that empty the tank.
Official Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Predictions
Fight tape plus math point to Sandhagen by clear but competitive decision. He survives early power, stacks body work, and piles on volume once the Brazilian’s feet grow heavy. Four of Sandhagen’s last five wins came after the halfway mark; three ended on the scorecards. Figueiredo owns a chin sturdy enough to endure everything except exhaustion.
Pick: Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision, 49‑46.
Value Bets
• Sandhagen by Decision (+140). The implied 41 percent is generous given a predicted 80 percent cardio edge.
• Over 3.5 Rounds (–135). Durability on both sides plus the champion‑level respect factor tilt toward length.
What’s Next?
If Sandhagen wins, look for the UFC to pair him with Umar Nurmagomedov on the Abu Dhabi card in October or keep him on standby for O’Malley‑Dvalishvili in August. A finish could even override rankings and catapult him straight into the title discussion, especially if Dana White values an American challenger for a fall pay‑per‑view in New York.
Should Figueiredo upset, expect immediate chatter of a No. 1‑contender rematch with Petr Yan or a stylistic firefight versus Chito Vera that doubles as a de‑facto eliminator. Thirty‑seven is late for a bantamweight surge, but a signature win over a top‑five giant would restart the hype train and give the UFC a storyline of two‑division champion chasing history.
Controversial split decisions or injury‑related anticlimax could stall momentum for both. In that scenario, the UFC might drop the winner into a high‑profile co‑main against the loser of August’s title fight, keeping the division moving while adding clarity.